Warning and suggestions about the times we are in.

Time for Dyfedd Rex to pontificate about something he’d planned to keep quite on. Your choice as to what this is, me staring into some crystal ball or reading Tarot cards, or if I’m using deductive powers like a certain renowned detective stepped from the writings of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

We, as a planet, are about to take it in the shorts. Without Mother Nature letting her agents of culling the herds use any lubrication at all…

Period.

When the legendary Four Horsemen ride the world, in a hunting pack, we as a race really don’t stand a chance. Now, before you think I’m saying that this is the End Times, or just scaring folks, let me lay out for you some facts, that the ancient scribes or God, or gods, depending upon your beliefs, really were saying.

Pestilence/Plague, Famine, War, and Death work hand in hand. This is the real message here, today. Each feeds the other, driving the cycle of life that even the greatest of nations must fear. War opens the gates to the Pestilence and Famine, shown in our own often decried and forgotten history, and Death rides his pale horse everyday through us, so we only notice him when that scythe takes larger numbers each swing. Enough with the allegories, time for the facts, the deductions/predictions, and some answers, which, while I am sure some in high places are thinking about, they are taking their own sweet time in doing so. Which will cost us more lives, more freedoms, and maybe our way of life, forever.

War opens the door for diseases to move about easily, as healthcare breaks down in active zones, folks are more worried about surviving the conflict, fleeing places where the dead bodies pile up, than staying healthy, or laying in the supplies/crops to push on beyond the moment. And this, for those in the conflict zone, is fully understandable. You cannot eat crops you are raising if you catch a bullet or are blasted to bits by an explosion, so we run. That running, plus the constant shifting of troops around in the zone, outside it in staging areas, and the rotation home of troops to rebuild morale, re-equip, and train more soldiers.

This leads to a vector for Pestilence, be his form some parasite, some disease, something worse, to ride on those fleeing and fighting into new areas as conflicts shift about the chessboard, reacting to the situations. Famine comes from the places folks flee to, or head back to afterwards, not being prepared for the issues tagging along with them. The World’s current unrest is such a case. Much as WWI was the true spread mechanism for Spanish Flu during the years of the war and after, so too will the current crisis do the same, unless we learn from our past, as several philosophers warn us to do.

Am I saying we should not fight the just wars? No, but we need to move much more cautiously, and that might be why we are resisting so much sending ground troops into the fray against the Islamic State forces. Someone in government is urging caution, and being heeded. This might also explain the recent withdrawal of forces from Ukraine by Russia. Some wise person got Putin’s ear, and warned him of the consequences of continuing a conflict during a pandemic. Not just Ebola, but the enterovirus you see in the news of late, and resurgent, treatment resisting strains of things we thought we beat, like Polio and Tuberculosis. Multiple diseases, with very different presentations, all potentially killers. Not a good scenario for the world.

How is this going to drive Famine? Few these days have a stash of food, unless they accept the ridicule of others for being survivalists, or the religion urges them to have such. The rule of thumb, if we do have to resort to early 20^th Century tactics, is double the incubation period of locking down or quarantining a city, town, household, or what ever level we are forced by the spread of disease to move at. And with the large numbers of folks needing the assistance of food stamps and food banks, here in the U.S., that means Famine will be hitting those folks mid-way through, just as it did during the lockdowns of many places during “The Great Influenza”, who were forced to keep going out to shop, allowing that one vector to continue. Now, Ebola is not quite that contagious, but still, even a slight variance of it’s survival outside a body, could change that into something like the flu, where even wiping with disinfectants is not 100% effective in stopping its spread.

Here in the USA, the most risk groups will be the same as always, the homeless, drug addicts, the immune compromised (be it HIV victims, those recently treated for cancers, transplant recipients who take drugs against rejection, etc.), and any who work with them. IF this outbreak hits them, God help us all. The timing is very scary, as from now until the first week of January is one of the peak times for the transient portion of the homeless to be on the move. I know this, from experience, being homeless much of the last four years myself. The transient section are seeking the shelters and areas with known “Generous Giving Seasons”, where panhandlers make the most money to winter over on. With the crammed and unsanitary conditions in many shelters around our nation, this will prove a problem with no good answer.

Now, one more thing, before I leave. The worst part about any disease, any, is that all it takes to move it from epidemic to pandemic is stupid decisions by supposedly smart people. The homeless, often suffering mental illness, cannot be held to blame as much as those in healthcare and the government who fail to use common sense.

Case in point? Easy. Our Second US transmitted case of Ebola will now be a very difficult to control, thanks to a foolish healthcare worker who took a flight during their supposed time of incubation. One stupid decision, that now lays the other 132 passengers, and all the attending flight support folks, from the ticket agents down onto the ramp rats loading luggage, the TSA folks who inspected the patient’s luggage, and on further, to the virus. A stupid decision, by someone who should have known better. And where was the government in this? Why are those in the 21 day window not on a separate list for “No-Fly” status? Who knows, probably out feeding at the public trough on our tax dollars.  Stupid moves… when the Horsemen are riding, cost lives.

My suggestions? Simple.

1: Take the advice of Doug Adams, from the “Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”, and “Don’t Panic”. Seriously, panic will only make it worse. Be calm, cautious, and remember, it ain’t your fault you get a disease, but it will be your fault if it spreads via you. be prepared, wisely. If in a crowded place, do your best to avoid physical contact, keep a spacing of at least an arm’s length… out of not just caution, but courtesy as well.

2:Lay in now a supply of food in case you are exposed, and some serious entertainment supplies to prevent boredom turning you into a maker of dumb decisions. Books, movies, games, you name it. Keep it handy, it ain’t worth it to put others at risk from your exposure. Plan on a sixty day stay, if you have family/roommates, making them stay in place as well. Might be tough, but you don’t want to be responsible for the spread of it.

3: Be aware that some may not know they are a carrier, thanks to this stupid decision, and probably others. Some fool probably took mass transit, or will, along the line.

4: If exposed, do NOT be a damned fool, and expose others, on the assumption that they have told us we cannot catch it until symptoms appear. Self-Quarantine may seem harsh, but your friends, family, and neighbors will thank you for doing it, instead of sharing something by chance.

5: Make a plan now, for such. If you have a good plan, and stick to it, you won't be the next "Typhoid Mary" out there, spreading it around. And, you can protect any loved ones from further exposure. Include ways to communicate during isolation/quarantine, who becomes responsible for kids, pets, homes, etc., and even how to drop food and other supplies off, if not fully prepared in advance. 

My true biggest fear, regarding Ebola, is a carrier developing. Someone who will be asymptomatic, but shed the virus, a modern day “Typhoid Mary” if you will, who will not have a clue what havoc they are creating. God help us all, if that occurs.